Why Shorting with your Head can take away your Balls

EFX or Equifax made national headlines when it disclosed it’s massive data breach.  Everybody was reading about the failure of this company on a massive scale.  This seemed like a goldmine in the making.  

EFX takes 5 days to fully digest the news and the shorts but it pays off in spades going from the mid $120s down to just under $90.  Not a bad payout for the bears over a 5 day stretch.

Everybody that missed the first run down was eager for round 2.  Price runs up, and they start lickin their chops.  They’ve got the fib levels in play, they know the headlines are all bad, they like the round numbers, and they start hitting it short.

Price might be making new 20 range highs on the 30 and 60 minute, but this trade is a disaster.  This company is the next Enron, their entire businss core has been shifted.  Traders make compelling statements to themselves and talk themselves into getting larger, doubling down, and doing everything they shouldn’t have done because this company has done something so bad it has no choice but to drop.

No Matter How Bad the News is; the Market can always price in what it wants to. Nothing ever HAS to happen.

These traders took logic, and used it to get into a trade that was turning to the upside.

Long term this trade definitely has more going against it than for it, but will the trader that went all-in at $100 because it was a 10% correction from the lows and that psychological number was huge, will that trader be around to take another shot at it?

By using their heads, traders out there got themselves burned so badly that they won’t have the balls to pull the trigger next time.  The worst thing a trader can do is be right but so early that they take themselves out of the game before it even starts.

When building a case for the bears, few companies seem as out in the open and flawed as EFX right now.  Remember what happened to CMG after they were found to make people sick?  Their stock lost over 50% over the course of a year.

Logically, EFX definitely has potential to follow suit.  But does that mean it will?  If there’s no one left to buy, a stock can roll over.  If there’s no one left to short, a stock can explode.

Start building yourself a case for entry.  Doing this properly can help you determine between what makes sense in your mind (logic) and what can produce profits in your account (edge).  Because if you don’t, you’re going to hurt yourself mentally until you lose the nerve to take the trade that should be taken.  

Building a case for entry in trading is the difference between logic and edge. Only one Succeeds.

If you were to build a case short on EFX, what timeframe would you be looking at? 

Let’s assume for this example you like the 30 minute as it’s a 1-5 day hold using this timeframe on average.

What would your answer be to these questions?

  1.  What are the moving averages telling me about this stock?
  2.  What is the 20 range high/low telling me about this stock?
  3. Where is the last area that price respected strongly?
  4. Where did the last breakout/breakdown come from?
  5. What is my primary reason for taking this trade?

Now look at EFX since it broke out to a new 20 range high on the 30 minute and decide what would your decision been?

Can you be opposite in the short term when the long term says something else?

Can you be patient enough to wait for the proper signal?

Do you have a signal at all that should get you in?

These are the questions you have to start asking yourself in trading.  Regardless of the stock, trading is a personal process.  There are always traders looking at the opposite side of your trade, whether retail or professional.

There are always trades you can do everything right on, have your edge present, and still come out losing.  So you better make sure that you are 100% convicted on the trades you DO take.  

Yes, EFX made sense to short it.  Yes, EFX went long in the short term and is easy to call out in hindsight.  But, now that you see a potential case for entry and have an idea on some questions to start asking, what do you see going forward?

This video may help show the way as well, but remember, every trade is a winner and a loser depending on who you are.  The trick is to keep your head in check so you don’t lose your balls, because if you don’t have the guts to pull the trigger when it counts because last time you got burned, you’re done.  Build the Edge, Follow the Edge, get Paid by the Edge.  It really can be this simple. 

If you liked this training, don’t forget to share the tweets so others can find this page or join the CTP Group for free below to get training like this sent direct to your email 1-4x a month.

CTP Group